Earnings Up for Q3, Living-Wage Jobs Grow in September, According to Ludwig Institute

‘Functional unemployment’ for Blacks, Hispanics at lowest level in 27 years

October 18, 2022

For Immediate Release

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Even after adjusting for inflation, low- and middle-income workers posted notable wage gains for the third quarter of 2022, while the percentage of Black and Hispanic workers in full-time, living-wage jobs is at its highest level since 1995, according to an analysis by the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP).

LISEP issued its monthly True Rate of Unemployment (TRU) for September in conjunction with the quarterly True Weekly Earnings (TWE) report for the third quarter of 2022. TRU is a measure of the functionally unemployed -- the jobless, plus those seeking but unable to secure full-time employment paying above the poverty line. TWE is a measure of median weekly earnings after adjusting for inflation, and differs from the data issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through inclusion of all members of the workforce, including part-time workers and those actively seeking employment.

LISEP’s TWE reports median weekly earnings for Q3 of $920, up from $907 for Q2, even after adjusting for inflation. At 2.93%, Hispanic wage earners saw the largest increase, from $733 to $755 a week, with White workers seeing a 1.5% increase ($996 to $1,011), followed by Black workers, with a 0.36% increase ($758 to $761). Men saw a 1.9% increase in TWE ($1,017 to $1,036), with women posting a 1.1% increase ($798 to $806).

Wage earners on the lower end of the spectrum — the 25th percentile — saw their real earnings increase by 1.2%, while those in the 75th percentile saw wages increase by 1.25%. Those at the high end of the scale, at the 90th percentile, saw inflation-adjusted earnings decrease by 1.2%.

This report includes positive news for middle-income earners, according to LISEP chairman Gene Ludwig.

“Inflation has presented challenges for all levels of earners, but particularly among middle- and lower-income families,” Ludwig said. “Yet it is encouraging to see that these households are holding their own, and even making marginal gains, in spite of rising living costs.”

LISEP’s employment report was equally encouraging, with a larger percentage of the American workforce finding full-time, living-wage jobs. The September TRU dropped 0.3 percentage points, to 22.3%, with the rate for Hispanic workers dropping 2.6 percentage points, to 23.5%, and the TRU for Black workers falling 1.5 percentage points, to 24.8%. Both figures represent the lowest TRU for these groups dating back to 1995, the first year for which LISEP has data.

The TRU for White workers increased by 0.9 percentage points, to 21.8%. The TRU for male workers decreased 1.3 percentage points, to 17.2%, while for women the rate increased by 0.9 percentage points, to 28.1%.

“On the whole this is a good report as far as increasing employment opportunities and living wages for middle- and lower-income families. But we know inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, are a threat to middle- and low-income families — something policymakers need to watch very closely” Ludwig said.

Earnings Up for Q3, Living-Wage Jobs Grow in September, According to Ludwig Institute

‘Functional unemployment’ for Blacks, Hispanics at lowest level in 27 years

‍Jim Gardner

October 18, 2022

For Immediate Release

Historically, systemic barriers have disproportionately hampered Black farmers’ ability to retain land ownership.

Despite this tragic history, there is still time and economic incentive to set some of the inequities right.

In 2021, working mothers with children under 18 earned just 61.7 cents for every dollar a father made. Much wider than the overall gender wage gap, this difference highlights both the motherhood penalty and the fatherhood premium.

Female-dominated, low-paying, part-time occupations are overrepresented among informal workers who also have a formal job.

We need to create an economic environment where companies can hire these workers as employees and pay them a living wage. There are steps policymakers can take to change the gig economy dynamic.

Dependency on tips over base pay is growing because of actions taken by gig companies to institute tipping.

Even for those lucky enough to be making what amounts in many states to the poverty wage of $15 per hour, many will get nothing but a week’s notice before being out on the street.

One study shows that consistent involvement in extracurricular activities increased a child’s likelihood of attending college by a whopping 400% compared to not being involved at all.

Studies have found that both men and women are paid less if they work in “nurturant” occupations.

Since 2015, the correlation between LISEP’s functional employment to population ratio and the inflation rate was more than four times as strong as the BLS’s employment to population ratio, which is depicted in the graph below.

The employment to population ratio settles the discrepancy between what we see around us and what the data says.

The NBER paper defines employment using the traditional BLS U-3 rate. However, the often-used U-3 number fails to capture the quality of jobs.

Among states with stricter COVID-19 policies, reducing unemployment benefits had little to no effect. The average effect of increased employment seems to have occurred only in those states with looser COVID protocols.

This report includes positive news for middle-income earners, according to LISEP chairman Gene Ludwig.

Press Contact:

‍Jim Gardner

press@lisep.org

(573) 680-1822

Additional Resources:

TRU & TWE Summary

TRU White Paper

TWE White Paper

TRU & TWE Methodology

TRU & TWE Source Data

About TRU

LISEP issued the white paper Measuring Better: Development of “True Rate of Unemployment” Data as the Basis for Social and Economic Policy' upon announcing the new statistical measure in October 2020. The paper and methodology can be viewed here. LISEP issues TRU one to two weeks following the release of the BLS unemployment report, which occurs on the first Friday of each month. The TRU rate and supporting data are available on the LISEP website at lisep.org/tru.

About TWE

LISEP issues the TWE quarterly following the release of the BLS Median Weekly Earnings report. The full white paper, Understanding the Status of American Workers Through Analysis of Current Population Data, can be viewed here. The TWE rate and supporting data are available on the LISEP website at lisep.org/earnings.

About LISEP

The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity (LISEP) was created in 2019 by Gene Ludwig and his wife, Dr. Carol Ludwig. The mission of LISEP is to improve the economic well-being of middle- and lower-income Americans through research and education. LISEP’s original economic research includes new indicators for unemployment, earnings, and cost of living. These metrics aim to provide policymakers and the public with a more transparent view of the economic situation of all Americans, particularly low- and middle-income households, compared with misleading headline statistics.

About Gene Ludwig

In addition to his role as LISEP chair, Gene Ludwig is founder of the Promontory family of companies and Canapi LLC, a financial technology venture fund. He is the founder and CEO of Ludwig Advisors, which counsels financial firms on critical matters. Ludwig is the former vice chairman and senior control officer of Bankers Trust New York Corp. and served as the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency from 1993 to 1998. He is also author of the book The Vanishing American Dream, which investigates the economic challenges facing low- and middle-income Americans. On Twitter: @geneludwig.

Please Note:

The Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity continuously revises and updates its data. As a result, data presented in this release may no longer reflect the latest estimates. Find the most current data at lisep.org.